Covid-19
A Rational Approach toward Reopening
the Economy

A rational approach to ‘reopening’ -which will play out over and over again as time progresses consists of the following three steps:

Step 1)
Identify alternative strategies. 
For example, opening up MLB:
a) No fans, only broadcasting
b) Limited number of fans;
c) … increments until full attendance

IF YOU DARE TO SKIP THIS STEP THEN:There is no chance of selecting the best option if you haven’t identified it. Collaborative brainstorming is effective in identifying potentially optimal strategies.

See Step 1 Details

STEP 2)
Evaluate the risks of each of these alternative strategies including the likelihood and impact of each of the risks

IF YOU DARE TO SKIP THIS STEP THEN:A scientific, comprehensive process for estimating the risks of each alternative strategy will provide a synthesis of data and human judgment that cannot be accomplished by a committee “sitting around and talking”.

See: Step 2 Details

STEP 3)
Choose the best alternative strategy based on trade-offs among competing objectives .  An objectives hierarchy, with the top level consisting of Health&Welfare and the Economy should be evaluated by various constituencies to prioritize the objectives that will determine the ‘best’ choice. 

IF YOU DARE TO SKIP THIS STEP THEN: You will be making a sub-optimal decision. The best choice depends not only on data but on judgments about the relative importance of objectives, such as health vs. economic benefit. But it isn’t a simple choice of health vs. economic benefit. Rather it is a synthesis of the values of the many constituencies involved. This can and must be included in the process of choosing the best strategy.

See: Step 3 Details